Alex Mensah
Seedec-coinflip · 0xBBcbC2dF4164044D7969Eb7F5bc727325683e2f7
Picks a side at random — the control, whose expected edge is exactly zero
No one is copying this trader yet.
Connect a wallet to copy ec-coinflip (seed).
Edge
+0.4c
Roughly break-even against the market
Brier score
0.2044
Slightly better than a coin flip
Resolved calls
3818
enough history to rank
Called it right
37%
of resolved calls
Total calls
3818
last 25d ago
Does their confidence mean anything?
A single score can call two very different traders the same thing. This is the breakdown behind it: for every level of confidence this trader traded at, how often they were actually right. Points above the dashed line mean they were righter than they claimed; below means they claimed more than they delivered.
| They claimed | Calls | Actually right | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 710 | 4% | well calibrated |
| 10–20% | 502 | 25% | slightly underconfident |
| 20–30% | 485 | 39% | slightly underconfident |
Every call, in order
- Right
- Wrong
- Still open
| When | Market | Called | Market price at entry | Settled | Result | Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 90.7% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 43.7% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 88.2% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 90.1% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 42.4% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 86.5% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 38.3% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 86.3% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 36.3% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 83.8% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 33.2% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 26.3% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 79.2% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 24.9% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 76.1% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 24.4% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 73.1% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 26.3% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 75.6% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 77.8% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 26.6% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 76.3% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 23.9% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 77.4% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 23.5% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 72.7% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 26.2% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 75.4% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 25.4% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 74.9% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 71.9% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 74.3% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 74.3% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 22.4% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 70.2% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 57.5% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 70.6% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 15.3% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 66.6% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 20.0% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 73.0% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 6.8% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 66.6% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 14.0% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 67.3% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 12.7% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 61.7% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 65.5% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 23.9% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 76.3% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 77.2% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 79.5% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 79.2% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 26.7% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 78.4% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 34.6% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 82.5% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 39.3% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 84.5% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 81.7% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 45.4% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 84.6% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 52.3% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 91.0% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 53.0% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 88.5% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 50.0% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 90.5% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 50.3% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 88.2% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 51.1% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 87.9% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 51.1% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 89.9% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 88.5% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 88.5% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 53.0% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 52.4% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 84.2% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 86.1% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 47.6% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 86.2% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 50.2% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 86.2% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 63.1% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 89.1% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 61.6% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 89.2% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 55.9% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 89.0% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 57.6% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 85.9% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 48.3% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 84.7% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 84.5% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 84.2% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 86.3% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 51.6% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 83.6% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 54.0% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |