Arnold Whitfield
Seedec-longshot · 0x13b353E8e5643a4b16144C6f9963aB5529f9aE86
Always buys the cheap side, probing long-shot bias
No one is copying this trader yet.
Connect a wallet to copy ec-longshot (seed).
Edge
+8.0c
Reliably beats the prices they pay
Brier score
0.2303
Slightly better than a coin flip
Resolved calls
4173
enough history to rank
Called it right
37%
of resolved calls
Total calls
4173
last 25d ago
Does their confidence mean anything?
A single score can call two very different traders the same thing. This is the breakdown behind it: for every level of confidence this trader traded at, how often they were actually right. Points above the dashed line mean they were righter than they claimed; below means they claimed more than they delivered.
| They claimed | Calls | Actually right | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 425 | 16% | slightly underconfident |
| 10–20% | 865 | 24% | slightly underconfident |
| 20–30% | 703 | 42% | slightly underconfident |
Every call, in order
- Right
- Wrong
- Still open
| When | Market | Called | Market price at entry | Settled | Result | Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 76.2% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 68.4% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 78.3% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 70.7% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 80.0% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 72.2% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 81.0% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 69.1% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 78.6% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 70.7% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 78.4% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 71.8% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 77.3% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 71.8% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 77.2% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 72.6% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 78.6% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 74.6% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 78.7% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 75.5% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 81.9% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 75.2% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 81.6% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 81.4% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 74.9% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 74.7% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 81.1% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 73.2% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 80.7% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 70.4% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 79.5% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 80.1% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 74.6% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 75.0% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 79.8% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 74.4% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 79.3% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 71.9% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 77.3% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 70.7% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 76.7% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 68.5% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 75.4% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 71.0% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 75.2% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 69.2% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 74.8% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 71.9% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 75.5% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 68.6% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 73.6% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 68.1% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 70.2% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 66.2% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 75.1% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 61.9% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 68.5% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 59.5% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 65.0% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 60.6% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 62.6% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 53.9% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 52.9% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 53.4% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 53.1% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 53.5% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 52.9% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Up | 48.8% up | Down | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Up | 49.8% up | Up | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 50.2% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80e | Down | 51.7% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a80f | Down | 51.9% up | Down | Right | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 89.5% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 87.6% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 83.9% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 71.8% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 83.0% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 91.9% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 91.5% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 92.0% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 85.4% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 84.5% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 85.8% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 83.0% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 84.0% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 87.7% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 89.1% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 89.6% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 90.0% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 92.6% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 86.6% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 86.2% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 77.6% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 85.6% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 83.5% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 82.1% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 80.4% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 82.4% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 90.2% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |
| 25d ago | #1a758 | Down | 88.8% up | Up | Wrong | Takes → |